Track of Gulf low will play huge role in snow totals across Southcentral
Light to moderate snow showers built into the Anchorage Bowl earlier today and led to some accumulation anywhere form 1-2". While the activity has been pretty lenient since then, more snow is possible into the overnight hours. This comes as a low-pressure system to our southeast gradually moves into the Prince William Sound, which will play a huge role in just how much snow we could see across the region.
Going ahead and diving into what is certain for Southcentral is the cold. Cold air has been dammed up in the Alaska Range and will spill out across Southcentral. This will bring some of the coldest air we've seen in quite some time. Highs over the next several days will only climb into the 10s and 20s, with overnight lows fall near the single digits. This will keep any snow we see around Southcentral for at least the next week.
Now for the uncertainty in the forecast, which could ultimately mean only a few more inches of snow or upwards of 5-6 inches of additional snowfall. A gulf low moving into the Prince William Sound has plenty of moisture to play with it. A track that takes it more westward would put Anchorage in the sweet spot for an additional 3-5 inches of snow. A more easterly track will put the higher snowfall totals over the Chugach Mountains and portions of the Western Prince Sound, with Anchorage likely only seeing an additional 1-3" of snowfall. For now going with a blend with portions of Anchorage and the valley seeing anywhere from 2-4" of snow, bringing the total snow amount to just over half a foot of snow.
Be careful on the roads tomorrow, as snow is all but certain for the morning commute. With many traffic accidents having already occurred today, you'll want to keep distance between you and the person in front of you. Make sure to also add some extra time to your morning commute to give you plenty of time to get where you are going.
Snow should come to an end into the late evening hours, with skies slowly clearing out. It's here where temperatures will quickly plummet into the teens. The general trend shows that we'll keep seasonal to below-average values around through most of the week until the weekend when highs warm ahead of our next storm system.
Have a great start to your week!
- Meteorologist Aaron Morrison