Time to Ride the Roller Coaster

The forecast? Up, down, and everywhere in between.

Tools

By Eric Snitil

Story Created: Feb 7, 2011 at 11:59 AM AKDT

Story Updated: Feb 9, 2011 at 6:06 PM AKDT

At noon today, step outside. Feel the wind. It won't be much...maybe a few miles an hour. Then look up. Nearly 40,000 feet above your head, in the region of the atmosphere where the jet stream lurks, things are different. Way different. Winds there are a tad on the breezy side at about 150 mph. Pretty amazing. 

 
Back at the surface, we'll have our fair share of amazing to contend with too.  The same system generating the strong winds aloft will spark off precip from late Tuesday night through the day Wednesday.
 
Most of south central will be in the precip shield for this one, Anchorage included. Looks like winds aloft will be slightly west of south-a good direction to negate the effects of downsloping. The big question will be what is falling on our heads.
 
As more warm air works in, temps will be on the rise. Wednesday's high looks to be somewhere in the low 30's, but the difference between 31 and 33 is a big one. As things stand now, I'm expecting precip to begin as snow late Tuesday night into early Wednesday then transition to a wintry mix during the afternoon.
 
This could be a little wet snow, cold rain, and even some patchy freezing rain. We may have a brief window where sub-freezing conditions at the surface coincide with a chunk of warm air aloft to keep things on the slick side.
 
Fortunately, liquid precip totals don't appear to be too significant, with upwards of a quarter inch possible. The combination of light precip and mild temperatures means there won't be much in the way of snowfall accumulations in the city. Sorry snow lovers. 
 
It's all downhill from there- literally. Another arctic shot looks to follow by the weekend...and temps look very cold.
 
The computer models tend to jump the gun on how quickly arctic air arrives, so while the models hint at Friday, I think it's more likely to shoot for Saturday or Sunday. Regardless, when it arrives you'll know it. It will be a stark contrast to the mild 30's midweek. 
 
In the meantime, we'll enjoy one more day of sunshine before more clouds roll in for Tuesday. Have a great Monday! 
 
-Eric-

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