KTVA’s PFD prediction: The math behind the money
Gov. Walker is expected to announce the PFD amount Monday at 10 a.m. Some speculate it could be more than the record-breaking 2008 check of $2,069.
The Alaska Department of Revenue publishes a formula for how the dividend is calculated, and KTVA worked the numbers.
The dividend is calculated using a formula that averages the Permanent Fund’s earnings over the past five years. Therefore, we first found the total of the fund’s net income from 2011 to 2015: about $13 billion.
That number gets multiplied by 21 percent to get the state’s five-year average. It is then divided in two — since that is the amount of money that goes toward the dividend — leaving roughly $1.4 billion.
The fund’s existing $11 million balance is added, and $37 million is subtracted for state expenses that go toward things like the Department of Corrections, as well as operating costs for the Permanent Fund. That leaves $1,347,000,000 to be distributed to Alaskans.
However, not every Alaskan who applies for a PFD check qualifies, so the estimated number of people receiving a check is 631,306.
The aforementioned $1.4 billion figure divided by the number of people getting a check is $2,134. You can expect Walker’s announcement to be close to that figure.
Watch the 2015 PFD announcement live at ktva.com/stream.