An I-Team Investigation

When it comes to Alaska's future, many are pinning their hopes on a natural gas pipeline. Although it won't solve all of our problems, economists tell the I-Team it would definitely give us a boost.

So what happens if the gas pipeline doesn't get built?

That's what the I-Team has been investigating.

There is disagreement about this issue, because we're asking people to predict the future. But some fear the lack of a gas pipeline could be so bad, it could impact the value of your house.

The push for a natural gas pipeline comes as production on the North Slope is falling by four to five-percent a year. Our economy in

Alaska is so dependent on the energy business that the failure to build a natural gas pipeline to help make up for those oil losses could literally hit home.

"How that would impact housing prices, well it would make them softer than they otherwise would've been. But that's not to say they would crash. I don't think that's the case," said UAA economist Professor Scott Goldsmith.

A sluggish housing market here could be due to a feeling that Alaska's economy is on shaky ground if a gas pipeline doesn't get built. But one Anchorage realtor says he's not worried.

"The job growth in Anchorage is going up steadily every year. The overall dynamics of our economy continue to change to where we're not as dependent on oil," said Art Clark of Real Estate Brokers of Alaska.

Professor Goldsmith says about one-third of Alaska's economy comes from oil, which leaves two-thirds that are made up of money from the federal government as well as fishing, tourism and other businesses.

A former economist for Governor Sheffield says we shouldn't panic if we don't get a gas pipeline--but it won't be rosy either.

"Things will go on probably pretty much as they have been. We're in a period of great uncertainty,

not withstanding what happens to the gas pipeline. And I think that's going to be the case whether or not a gas pipeline is approved anytime, or gets built anytime in the near future," said former Governor Sheffield's economist, Gregg Erickson.

On the bright side, Professor Goldsmith believes Anchorage can withstand a future without a gas pipeline, for sure.

"It sort of has a diverse portfolio. It's not entirely dependent or the fishing industry or the military or the oil industry or the tourism industry. But it's involved in all of these industries and so in a sense, it's able to sort of roll with the punches," said Professor Goldsmith.

That's comforting, but most state leaders would feel much better if the gas pipeline becomes reality.

If you have a story for the I-Team that you want me to look into, you can call the I-Team hotline number at 273-3111.